• Max B

Live Updates: Newsom Survives Recall

Updated: Sep 15

Have a question? Submit it here, and I'll answer it in a Q&A video!


Starting at 8:00 PM on September 14th and continuing until we know the result, I will be providing live coverage of the California Gubernatorial Recall Election here, with video updates and early projections of the result. I'll also be making Q&A videos where I answer questions from readers. Submit one here! Please note that I will be declaring winners whenever I am more than 95% certain of the result, a lower confidence interval than that of most news networks, which will only call an election if they are more than 99.5% certain of the result. This is the reason that I will often call elections before the networks do. I've been calling elections early for several years and have never declared the wrong winner -- and I don't intend to start now! However, there is a greater risk that I won't not call every contest correctly.


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10:15 PM There is no such thing as victory in a recall; there is only survival. The fact that the recall attempt qualified for the ballot in the first place testifies to a deep discontent amongst Californians as the cost of living increases, quality of life remains poor, and many residents leave the state for the lower tax rates and cheaper housing of Florida and Texas, causing California to lose a congressional seat for the first time ever in the last Census. Gavin Newsom is only the fourth governor in American history to be recalled, and the second (after Wisconsin's Scott Walker) to survive. While his margin, at 30 percentage points, is quite large at this time and almost identical to President Biden's, it is likely to narrow as more in-person votes are counted. If Newsom ultimately survives the recall by ten points or so -- as seems probable -- even that constitutes a rebuke of his tenure as governor and most likely the end of his widely-rumored presidential ambitions.


9:10 PM Q&A -- I'm sorry that it is a bit late

9:00PM Why I Agree That Newsom Will Survive Recall Attempt

8:50 PM The Associated Press has declared that Gavin Newsom has prevailed in the recall election

8:40 PM Even though the margin is currently almost identical to that of the 2020 general election in many key counties and is likely to shift towards the republicans as more in-person ballots are counted, Newsom is still in very good shape to prevail in the recall election. California is a very blue state, and even if margins tighten, it would require almost miraculous election day turnout in conservative areas to beat back the headwinds the recall currently faces. Reports of long lines at polling locations in places like Orange County suggest both that turnout is strong but also that some voters might have given up, depressing turnout. In conclusion, while signals are mixed, the recall is still unlikely to succeed.

8:15 PM Initial State of the Race

8:00 PM Radar live updates will begin upon the end of voting






Photo Credit: ABC7 News


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