• Max B

Election Live Updates: Biden Projected to Win

Updated: Nov 6

Starting at 3:30 PM and possibly continuing through the week, I'll have updates on various Senate, Gubernatorial, and Presidential elections here. These will include short videos with analysis of the results and early calls of various contests. Please note that I will be declaring winners whenever I am more than 95% certain of the result, a lower confidence interval than that of most news networks, which will only call an election if they are more than 99.5% certain of the result. This is the reason that I will often call elections before the networks do. I've been calling elections early for several years and have never declared the wrong winner -- and I don't intend to start now! However, there is a greater risk that I won't not call every contest correctly.


November 6th

10:00 AM Biden wins Nevada, with absentee ballots from the Las Vegas area expected to widen his existing 1.7-point lead, giving him 306 electoral votes -- exactly matching Donald Trump's electoral college majority in 2016.


November 5th

Video: Why I Project That Biden Wins


Video: Elaboration on My Projection that Biden Will Win Georgia (TL;DR: I stand by it)


4:00 PM Biden wins Pennsylvania, outperforming Barack Obama's 2012 margin in suburban areas near Philadelphia and taking the lead in Erie County, giving him 300 electoral votes


Video: Why I Called Pennsylvania for Biden

Video: What This Means For The Electoral Map


November 4th

9:50 AM Biden wins Wisconsin

10:15 AM GOP Sen. Susan Collins wins reelection in Maine, upsetting Democratic State House speaker Sara Gideon and clearing a path for Republicans to maintain their Senate majority

12:50 PM Biden wins Michigan, giving him 280 electoral votes -- enough to secure the presidency with a 95% confidence interval.

6:15 PM Associated Press projects that Sen. Gary Peters (D) wins reelection in Michigan


November 3rd:

3:30 PM Start of live updates

4:00 PM Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky. Biden wins in Virginia and Vermont. Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R), Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnel, and Virginia Sen. Mark Marner (D) win reelection.

4:15 PM Early results in Florida bode well for Biden

4:25 PM Biden leads in Duval County, Florida -- which bodes well for his chances both in Florida and has implications for Maricopa County, Arizona. But Democratic optimism is tempered by a poor showing in populous Miami-Dade County, due to a poor performance with Latino voters.

4:30 PM Trump wins West Virginia, while incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Justice (R) and Sen. Shelly Moore-Capito win reelection

5:00 PM Tommy Tuberville (R) unseats incumbent Senator Doug Jones (D) in Alabama, gaining a seat for the Republican party. Trump wins Alabama, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Kansas. Biden wins Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine's 1st district, Maine's two at large electoral votes, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Delaware, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Update in Florida, where Biden's lead has evaporated and Trump is now favored in the forecast. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Chris Coons (D-DE), Cindy Hyde-Smith (D), win reelection to the Senate. John Carney (D-DE), and Chris Sununu (R-NH) reelected as Governors.


NB: I've stopped calling every Senate and Governor race -- it's simply too much to keep track of, frankly.


5:10 PM Trump wins Missouri, South and North Dakota, and Tennessee.

5:19 PM Trump wins Florida, a must-win state for his campaign. Biden's path to the presidency now goes through the Upper Midwest

5:30 PM Trump wins Arkansas

5:35 PM A glimmer of hope for Biden in Texas. He has improved 13 points in Tarrant County, TX -- a large suburban county near Dallas, with 98% of the vote reporting.

6:00 PM Biden wins Colorado, New York, and New Mexico. Trump wins Wyoming.


6:15 PM Video Update


6:45 PM Video Update


7:10 PM President Trump wins Utah

7:15 PM President Trump wins Louisiana, and Nebraska's two at-large electoral votes, and the two electoral votes from the first and third congressional districts. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) defeats Democrat Jaime Harrison, winning reelection.

7:40 PM Biden wins New Hampshire


8:15 PM Video Update


8:20 PM Trump wins Missisippi

8:30 PM Despite what the New York Times needle says, Biden still has a real chance in North Carolina. He lags by just about a percentage point and most of the remaining vote is expected to break for him. Trump still also has a clear path to victory, but either way, it will be a nail-biter.

8:30 PM Republicans, riding President Trump's coattails, have unexpectedly defeated two freshmen Democratic congresswomen in the Miami area, picking up competitive seats with large Latino populations, both containing a slice of the heavily-Cuban Hialeah. Learn more in the latest live video update.


9:00 PM Video Update


9:00 PM Trump wins Ohio, another must win state that he needed to win to regain the White House. Ohio was expendable for Biden, but no candidate has won the presidency without it in over 70 years. Under traditional wisdom, Biden, having lost both Ohio and Florida, is an underdog, although he still has a plausible path to 270 electoral votes if he wins in the Upper Midwest. See the 9:00 PM video update for an explanation of why Biden's chances are better than they look.

9:10 PM Biden wins Minnesota, a state Donald Trump lost narrowly four years ago and hoped to flip.

9:15 PM Biden wins Hawaii. I forgot to mention that he won California, Oregon and Washington at 8:00 PM, while Trump won Idaho. Sorry!

9:35 PM Biden is making a very strong shoeing among suburban white voters in Texas, but struggling among Latinos. Although Trump's margin of victory will be smaller there than in 2016, he is still the favorite to win the state. I explain the results county by county in the video below.


Video: Texas Update


9:40 PM Biden wins Arizona, and Trump wins Iowa as Sen. Joni Ernst wins a second term, defeating Theresa Greenfield.


9:45 PM Joe Biden thanks supporters in Wilmington, DE, declaring that he's "on track to win the election" as soon as tomorrow morning.


Video: State of the race and possible scenarios (c. 9:45 PM)


Video: Georgia Update


Biden on track to win 16 electoral votes in Georgia, giving him a cushion in the electoral college, should he lose some states in the Upper Midwest.


10:20 PM Trump wins Texas, improving his performance among Latinos in South and West Texas over 2016 despite losing ground among suburban whites in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area.


10:25 PM Biden wins Georgia, the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996. Watch my Georgia update video to hear why I think Trump no longer has a plausible path to victory there.


10:30 PM Biden wins one electoral vote in Nebraska's second congressional district and gains ground in Wisconsin.


Video: state of the race and paths to victory (10:50 PM)


11:24 PM Trump speaks to supporters at the White House

11:50 PM An estimate of the votes remaining to be counted in North Carolina suggest that Biden is on track to win the Tar Heel State, but the race remains too close to call. Late-arriving mail-in ballots will determine the winner.


12:30 AM I'm wrapping up my coverage now. Here are three final videos


A note about mail-in ballots

Where the contest for Senate control stands

An overview of Republican House gains




Image credit: Fox News


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