Vick A.: The Power of the Middle Eight

By Vick A. '27

Throughout the past football season, teams attempted to utilize the seemingly never-ending flow of data surrounding each player to their advantage. Some teams focused on players, while others looked at overall team performances. Advanced football statistics is still in its infancy, but teams are already taking advantage of them. 

In my opinion, the most impactful use of sports statistics in football was Notre Dame's data-driven focus on the “middle eight” of each game in their college football season. “Middle eight” is a relatively new term that describes the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second half of a football game. The idea of winning these minutes comes from the possibility of scoring twice before the opponent touches the ball — once at the end of the half, and then after receiving the ball to start the second, exactly what Notre Dame did in its semi-final matchup vs. Penn State. Penn State entered the middle eight down ten points but leaving tied, going on to win, and heading to the national championship. 

Winning is something that teams that win the middle eight are quite familiar with, as throughout the season, teams that win the middle eight went on to triumph approximately 70% of the time. Notre Dame’s coach, Marcus Freeman, said that the middle eight was “something they often talk[ed] about” after hiring Anthony Treash, a sports statistician. Treash drew from data surrounding a 2019 study highlighting that between 2014-2019, the team that won the middle eight won the game 74% of the time, jumping to 76% when only focusing on power five conferences. While, admittedly, this study is over five years old, the conclusions still apply, and this Notre Dame squad demonstrates why. 

Using previous years' statistics to understand the most important minutes of each game, Treash and Freeman led Notre Dame to outscore opponents 148 - 17 in the middle eight for a 14-1 record. While one might argue that these two data points are unrelated, the correlation between point differential and team record is apparent: the top ten teams in the middle eight-point differential had a combined 512-160 record, and a 76% win rate. Another notable example of success inside the middle eight comes from ASU, who outscored opponents 87-16 in the middle eight, netting them an 11-3 record, an 8-win improvement over their prior season, and a spot in the college football playoffs. Although the middle eight failed to save Notre Dame in the national championship, its importance was again highlighted. Ohio entered the middle eight up only seven and scored two touchdowns to secure a commanding 21-point lead they carried to win. 

While the middle eight has proven to be a strong indicator of success, it is not without its pitfalls. Some analysts argue that focusing too much on the middle eight will lead teams to neglect other key moments, such as closing out the fourth quarter or establishing early momentum. Also, the true power of the middle eight can only be utilized when a team doesn’t start with the ball. Even if a team can consistently score 14 unanswered, if they struggle with turnovers or poor defense, they will still lose games. So, while the correlation between middle eight success and winning games is strong, it is not the sole factor that makes teams excel and shouldn’t be emphasized as a strategy above fundamentals. 

The rise of analytics in football is transforming teams’ strategies, and the middle eight is a prime example of how data-driven insights can influence success. While not a flawless metric, its strong correlation with winning highlights the power of understanding key moments in the game. Notre Dame’s dominance in the middle eight, along with teams like ASU, showcases how teams can leverage past data to shape future outcomes. 

As football continues to evolve, analytics will likely become even more integrated into decision-making, offering new ways to gain a competitive edge. Whether through refining the middle eight strategy or uncovering new predictive metrics, one thing is clear—teams that embrace analytics will be best positioned to succeed in the modern game.