Vick and Wells' March Madness Predictions

It's that time of year again, and time for another to

urnamnent preview. Take everything here with a grain of salt — it's called madness for a reason.

Who will be the tournament MVP?

Vick: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State

Momcilovic will not be a first-round pick in this year's draft. He is not a star freshman with a flashy bag and a highlight reel fitting of prime John Wall. But mark my words, if Iowa makes a deep run in this year's tournament (which they are primed to do as the 2-seed and consensus #6 team in the tournament), it will be on the back of this kid. One thing incredibly important in March is momentum, and when this Momcilovic gets hot, there is no stopping him — think 2016 Curry. In fact, 2016 Curry is a near-perfect comparison to Momcilovic. Momcilovic is a pure shooter who has hit clutch three after clutch three for Iowa, helping lead them to their impressive record. Averaging 17.1ppg, he has shot a mind-boggling 49.6% from three. For reference, Curry, the greatest shooter to ever touch a basketball, has a career average of 42.2% (obviously, Curry is far better than Momcilovic; this number is just to highlight how insane that is). Furthermore, his 3PM per game is only 0.2 less than Curry (3.9 versus 3.7). In a tournament where all it takes is a couple of minutes to get hot and change the tide, look for Milan Momcilovic to lead Iowa on a deep run. 

Wells: Cameron Boozer, Duke

While it might not be the most exciting pick, in my opinion, the MVP will be the best player on the best team, and to me, that is Boozer. There are certainly exciting players that are super fun to watch that go crazy in March Madness every year (think of guys like Jack Gohlke), but at the end of the day, you can’t really be the most valuable player if you don’t make a deep run into the tournament. More than any other player, Cam Boozer is the reason why Duke has been so dominant this year, and in my opinion, why they will continue to dominate in the tournament. Boozer is just that good. He’s averaging an insane 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game this season (all of which lead his team) on a ridiculously efficient 56.5% shooting. Boozer is a guy you can count on to win you games, and that is definitely what I expect him to continue doing in this tournament. 

Which top seed will be the first to fall?

Vick: 

I think it is impossible to truly cross out a top-three seed before the Sweet 16, and at that point, there is no one clear top seed that will fall. I mean, as disappointing as that might seem, they are the top seeds for a reason. However, I do have one bold prediction for this March. Out of all four of the four seeds, only one will make it to the Sweet 16. Now, this is not a fact of crazy over performances or Cinderella upsets, just the fact that I think the seeding committee got it grossly wrong multiple times. St. John's, despite beating the brakes off UConn (# 2 seed) in the Big East Tournament Final, was only given a #5 seed and will (most likely) face a Kansas team that has the chemistry of oil and water. #5 Vanderbilt beat #1-seeded Florida in the SEC tournament semifinals and will face #4 Nebraska, a team that doesn’t have the talent to run the court with Vandy. I think the only #4 seed that can book their ticket to the Sweet 16 is Alabama, and that's because they’ll either face a Texas Tech team that has more injuries than the local hospital or #12 Akron. The final #4 seed that could make it to the Sweet 16 is Arkansas, and don’t get me wrong, they are a great team. They just happened to draw #5 Wisconsin, a team that can get hot and run through you before you know it. So, while I think that, especially with the emergence of NIL, it has become even harder for a crazy early upset for a top-three seed, I do forecast a down year for the fours. 

Wells: Florida

Don’t get me wrong, Florida is a very good team, but they are most definitely the odd team out among the 1 seeds. They’ve had a really solid season, but the main issue I have with the Gators is that none of their wins have really impressed me. Sure, they’ve beaten some good SEC schools like Vandy (although it was close, and they subsequently lost to them in the SEC Tournament), Alabama, and Tennessee, but they have also lost to every elite team they have played, dropping games to Arizona, Duke, and UConn. Quite honestly, I haven’t been too impressed by their team as a whole, and they are most certainly not the championship-winning team they were last year, having lost, in my opinion, their three best players: Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. Now I love Xavian Lee as much as the next guy, but he is not the kind of player that can lead a team to a national championship (neither is Thomas Haugh nor Alex Condon), and you need a guy like that to rely on to make a deep run in the tournament. Combine that with what I see as the hardest path to the championship for a one seed, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Florida has an early exit this year.

What is the game of the tournament? 

Vick: 4 Arkansas vs 5 Wisconsin 

**EDITOR'S NOTE: As #12 High Point University upset #5 Wisconsin, this game can no longer happen

I have been tossing and turning over this game like a Freshman the night before their first Asian Worlds test. Darius Acuff Jr. of Arkansas looks like another elite PG, and the backcourt of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell for the Badgers is enough to give nightmares to any defender. If this game is to happen, it will surely be filled with some of the best guard play we will see all tournament, not to mention the coaching prestige. Honestly, I wish I could provide a clear answer to who will win this game. But what's the fun in that? 

Wells: 4 Kansas vs 5 St. Johns

If this game happens, which is most likely to happen, it will certainly be electric. Not only will it be one of the most exciting matchups from a player perspective, with likely future first overall pick Darryn Peterson facing off against a team of veterans in Zuby Ejifor and Bryce Hopkins, but it will also be a masterclass in coaching as Bill Self (Kansas) takes on Rick Pitino (St. John's). While I lean slightly toward St. John’s in this matchup, no matter which way the game goes, it will be one of the most exciting of the entire tournament. 

Who wins it all?

Vick: Arizona

I’m not going to sit here and pretend like I can guarantee you that Arizona will win the chip. At the end of the day, the margin between them, Michigan, Duke, and other top schools isn’t that large. So what pushes me towards the Wildcats?  Firstly, this team is battle-tested, boasting 12 ranked wins and a top ten hardest strength of schedule (#8). Additionally, if we disregard a 2 game slip where they lost by three in OT to Texas Tech and four to Kansas, this team hasn’t lost any other games. But that isn’t a fair reason to toss them over Michigan, which has a harder strength of schedule and only one more loss. One of the biggest reasons I am so high on Arizona is because of injuries. Both Duke and Michigan (the other two consensus top-three teams) are losing key pieces, and Arizona has been able to remain healthy heading into the dance. Additionally, their depth consistently amazes me. They don’t have a Cameroon Boozer or Darryn Peterson; they have a whole army. All of their starters can easily hit double figures on any given night, and Anthony Del Orso off the bench is reminiscent of Jamal Crawford. The beauty of their depth is that they never rely on one player to have a good game; their ability to move the ball and give it to the player whos doing well that specific game is a mark of a team that won’t streak out when it matters. If one guy goes silent or gets clamped, they have a whole cast of players ready to step up. Finally, to cement my case in Arizona, I will leave you with one last stat. Throughout the whole season, 34 games, only twice has Arizona allowed a killshot (when the opposing team scores ten points in a row). The first was in garbage time when they were up by thirty, and the second was to #5 Houston in the Big 12 Tournament Final. They responded to Houston's streak by going on a 14-0 streak of their own and winning the game. Levels.

Wells: Duke

Duke is the cleanest team in the tournament, and that is in large part because of a guy named Cameron Boozer. In my eyes, Cam Boozer is the ultimate college basketball player - a 6’9, 250-pound forward averaging 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds a game that will bully you in the paint and swallow up rebounds no matter how many people you throw at him. Boozer reminds me a lot of a stronger, more skilled, and more athletic version of Drew Timme (a college basketball legend). Now, like Timme, who hasn’t found much success after college basketball, I’m not sure how good Boozer will be in the NBA against NBA-sized competition, but I do know that he is a heck of a college basketball player, and he is the focal point of a team that lost just two games this season. But what makes this year’s Duke so special isn’t just how good Cam Boozer makes them; it’s also about how good the team is even when Boozer is having an off game. In the ACC Championship, a Duke team missing two key starters in Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster faced off against Virginia (ranked 9th in the country), in a game where Boozer was held to just 13 points on 3-17 shooting. Duke still won. Despite injuries and an off game from their star player, Duke was able to show why they’re a championship caliber team, because they can always find a way to win, and the numbers certainly show that. Duke finished the season 32-2, with their only losses coming to Texas Tech by a single point and to Kansas by 3. Not only that, but they have 13 ranked wins, including a solid 5 point win over 1 seeded Michigan just in February. If that doesn’t convince you, I might also add that they are fourth in offensive KenPom rating, second in defensive rating, and number one in ret rating. Even though this year’s Blue Devils are certainly not as talented as last year’s team, I believe that they are the better team and a team that could win it all. 

Which team can make a Cinderella run (a double-digit seed making the Sweet Sixteen)?

Vick: Texas

When I look for a Cinderella team, I look for a couple things. First, obviously, the team must be good. But secondly, and in my opinion, more importantly, their section of the bracket must be primed for an upset. Sure, Howard could upset Michigan and go on a crazy run, but that will be a heck of a lot harder than Texas’s path. In their first game, Texas gets BYU, a solid team without its second-best player. Then, they (most likely) get #3 Gonzaga, a team without their star forward, Braden Huff. Then, they’re in the Sweet 16 and have a shot at the Elite Eight if they can beat Purdue — the equivalent of the Dallas Cowboys. Condition one is met; a section of the bracket ripe for upset. Now, let's talk about Texas itself. They’re one of those teams that have faced a top 20 hardest schedule (according to KenPom), and have racked up over five losses by less than five points. In March, all it can take is a small spark, and the whole thing goes ablaze. While, for honesty's sake, I do have them losing in the first round, I think if any double-digit seed has a real chance at a run for the ages, it’ll be this Texas side. For those of you who believe USF will beat Michigan State and make the Sweet 16, I implore you to watch a single Tom Izzo run in March and come back to me. 

Wells: Texas

I’m with Vick on this one. What makes Texas a good candidate for a Cinderella run is most definitely the path they have to take to later rounds. First up, they play BYU, and while the Cougars have one of the most talented players in the country in AJ Dybansta, they have shown that their team is very much beatable. Just over the past couple of months, BYU has lost numerous games to unranked opponents (many of which were not even very close) despite Dybansta putting up video game-like numbers. While very talented, BYU is definitely a beatable team. Next, the Longhorns would most likely face Gonzaga, who, while a very good team, is definitely beatable. As Vick mentioned before, Gonzaga is missing Braden Huff, one of their best players, due to a knee injury, which is definitely going to hurt them. On top of that, Gonzaga hasn’t really played very many good teams this season (outside of losing to Michigan by a whopping 40 points). So again, very beatable. Then, they would most likely face Purdue in the Sweet 16, which I really don’t see as much of a powerhouse. Sure, they’re a solid team, but are they beatable? You bet. All that being said, you could make the case for a lot of teams making Cinderella runs (that’s what’s so awesome about March Madness), but I see Texas as having the best path towards a magical run this postseason.

Who is the dark horse (non-top-four seed) Final Four pick?

Vick: St John’s

For a dark horse to run into the Final Four, a team will have to face some real competition. While I think the overall path to a Final Four spot is easiest in the South region, I don’t really see a team capable of making that run. Sure, I love Vandy, but I think Huston will run them off the court with lockdown defense and a strong offense. In the Midwest, no team tickles my fancy either. Texas Tech is missing their star, and I will not be buying into the St Luis and Cream Abdul-Jabbar (yes, that's his real nickname) hype over Michigan. The West isn’t much better, as beating the Razorbacks and Wildcats is a tall task for many teams, not to mention Purdue in the bottom half of the bracket. So, I am left with St John’s. I am not going to pretend like their path is easy, but I do believe they have the tools to get the job done. Firstly, their suffocating defense should shut down a Kansas team more dysfunctional than TSA on a holiday weekend. Next, they face the juggernaut, Duke. Duke is a great team, and Cam Boozer is a great player, but I think that if anyone can shut him down, it’ll be Zuby Ejifor in what would be a clinic of a post-battle. If they were to manage that, they would most likely stare down #2 seed UConn in the Elite Eight, a team they are 2-1 against this year, including a 20-point creaming in the Big East Tournament Final. To be perfectly honest, I don’t think that all this happens, but if any non-top four team has a chance, I like the Johnies. 

Wells: Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has been a really good team this year, and on top of that, the South definitely has the easiest path to the Final Four. As I mentioned before, I really don’t see Florida as a real threat to win the title, or even go very far in the tournament, for that matter. What I see as Vanderbilt’s only legitimately tough challenge to make into the Final Four is Houston, and while the Cougars are definitely a better team than the Commodores, with the right momentum (and a solid amount of luck) I would not put it past Vanderbilt to win a game against them. Vandy started the season hot at 16-0, and while they have since cooled down, with some close conference losses, they have continued to show why they are an elite team (7th in offensive KenPom rating and 12th overall), having recently taken down Tennessee twice in a row and winning decisively over Florida in the SEC playoffs. While Vanderbilt isn’t the greatest team in the world, they are certainly a very good team, and combine that with a relatively easy path to the Final Four and a little bit of luck, I could definitely see them making a deep run this year.

What will be the biggest upset in the first round?

Vick: 12 Akron v 5 Texas Tech

Imagine you had Ronaldo 1v1 Christian Pulisic, except you chopped off one of Ronaldo's legs. In a normal game, Texas Tech does unholy things to Akron. However, JT Toppin tore his ACL — we chopped off one of Ronaldo's legs. This Akron team is scorching hot, winning 10 in a row and 19 of their last 20. Both of these teams live and die by the three-ball — 43% of Tech's points come from deep, and 39% for Akron — so in a single game, such a risky play style benefits Akron's chances. Without JT Toppin, Tech loses its big rebounder and scorer, and will have to put more of the workload on Christian Anderson, who is just returning from injury. This is still an upset for a reason, though; Texas Tech is a good basketball team and incredibly well coached. I just think that in one game in March, when anything can happen, I like Akron's odds more than any other 12-5 or greater upset. 

Wells: 13 Hofstra vs. 4 Alabama

Everyone tries their best to use statistics and numbers and matchups to try and predict which teams might upset who, but there’s a reason why it’s called March Madness - because sometimes, there is absolutely no way a team should upset a top-seeded team, but they just do. To me, some upsets you pick with your head, but others you pick with your heart, and boy is this Hofstra team calling to me. Sure, on paper, Alabama is better by almost every metric, but if I’ve learned one thing from watching March Madness, it’s that all of that goes out of the window once it gets down to the playoffs. Now, many of you probably have no idea who this Hofstra team is, or even that the school exists, so let me introduce you to them. Hofstra University is a school in Long Island, New York, and is home to the Pride and some pretty awesome basketball players. This year, Hofstra was led by junior guard Cruz Davis, who is averaging a crazy 20.2 points per game. While Davis may be the star of the team, it was really the Pride’s supporting cast that caught my eye, with guys like German Plotnikov, who is an amazing shooter, and big man Silas Sunday, who is a huge presence in the paint. Hofstra also enters the tournament on a 7-game winning streak, hopefully using that momentum to push past Alabama and win their school’s first-ever March Madness game.